| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest observed air temperature in Chicago will be on March 26, 2026. It matters for traders and observers because sub-daily temperature extremes can affect energy demand, travel, and short-term weather risks.
Late March is a transitional month in Chicago when winter air masses can still push south while spring warming begins; interannual variability and occasional late-season storms make minimum temperatures on a given date highly sensitive to synoptic conditions. Historical late‑March minima have ranged widely depending on Arctic outbreaks, snow cover, and lake‑effect moderation, so outcomes can swing as forecasts evolve in the days before the date.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of participants about which outcome will occur and will update as observations and forecasts change. Treat prices as a summary of expectations and new information rather than as a guarantee of the final measured value.
Resolution will follow the market's stated rules—typically the official lowest air temperature reported by the specified observing station or dataset during the calendar day; check the event's resolution criteria for the authoritative definition of measurement method, rounding, and station.
The market's resolution page will specify the station or dataset used (platforms commonly reference National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System stations such as O'Hare or Midway). Confirm the named station in the event details before trading.
Most markets use the local calendar day for the location in question—so the 24‑hour period in local Chicago time (Central Daylight Time on that date). Verify the event's time‑zone and start/end times in the market's resolution rules.
Adjudication of missing or suspect data is governed by the market's resolution policy; common approaches include using the nearest reliable observation, official corrected NWS values, or platform arbitration. Read the event's dispute and resolution procedures for specifics.
Follow a mix of deterministic and ensemble guidance (national model suites and high‑resolution mesoscale models), current surface observations, satellite imagery, short‑range convective/mesoscale analyses, and NWS forecast discussions—these together provide the evolving signal that will determine the overnight minimum.