| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will contain Chicago's lowest reported temperature on March 25, 2026 — a focused way for traders to express expectations about that day's coldest reading. It matters for weather-sensitive planning and for participants who track short-term forecast signals.
Late March in Chicago is a transitional period with a wide possible temperature range: outbreaks of cold air can still produce near-winter lows while milder spring patterns can bring much warmer nights. The city's proximity to Lake Michigan, the timing of synoptic systems, cloud cover, and urban heat effects all make single-day lows particularly variable and challenging to forecast. Markets like this aggregate many sources of information and update as new model runs and observations arrive.
Market prices reflect the market's collective expectation about which temperature bin will contain the minimum observed temperature on that date; they move as forecast models and observations change. For exact settlement rules and the specific observation used, consult the event's contract text.
Settlement timing and the specific measurement (which station, which instrument, and the time window) are defined in the contract's resolution rules; consult the event page for the named reporting source and the local-date window used for March 25, 2026.
The six outcomes are the predefined temperature ranges shown on the event page; after the designated observation period ends, the single range that contains the recorded minimum temperature will be declared the winning outcome.
Short-range model runs, frontal timing, and updated observations in the 48 hours before the date can shift expectations quickly because they determine cloud cover, wind direction, and whether colder air arrives before the overnight minimum.
Most contracts use the local calendar day for the named location; the exact local-time cutoff is specified in the event rules, so check those details since timing can affect whether a particular overnight low falls inside the March 25 window.
Different reporting stations experience different microclimates—airport sites may be windier and less influenced by urban heat, while downtown locations can be warmer at night—so the designated station in the event rules materially affects which outcome is possible.