| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29° to 30° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25° to 26° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined temperature outcome will represent the lowest observed temperature in Chicago on March 24, 2026. It matters because it aggregates public expectations about a specific daily weather extreme on a city with highly variable late-winter conditions.
Late March in Chicago can swing between lingering winter cold and early spring warmth, so single-day lows are driven by short-lived air-mass moves and surface conditions. Historical variability, local reporting station choice, and synoptic timing all make this a resolvable but weather-dependent event.
Market odds represent the aggregated beliefs of traders about which outcome will be realized and will change as forecasts, observations, and trader positions update; consult the event rules for the official resolution criteria before trading.
The event’s resolution source and exact reporting station are specified on the market’s rules page; the platform typically uses an official National Weather Service or similarly authoritative station for Chicago and the lowest official observation during the local calendar date will be used.
The market close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); the final outcome is determined after March 24, 2026 based on the official observations and according to the platform’s stated resolution timeline and procedures.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bucket or exact-value condition defined on the event page; consult the event description for the precise numeric boundaries and whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive.
Monitor forecast model runs and NWS updates for timing of frontal passages or arctic intrusions, overnight cloud cover trends, snowpack or recent precipitation, and wind shifts that would alter air-mass characteristics and overnight radiational cooling.
Boundary handling is governed by the market’s resolution rules; those rules will state whether boundaries are inclusive of the lower or upper endpoint or describe another tie-breaking convention, so review them before relying on outcome structure.