| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25° to 26° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six mutually exclusive outcomes will describe the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 23, 2026. It matters because day-to-day temperature extremes influence energy demand, transportation, and local planning decisions.
Late March is a highly variable time in the Chicago region: large-scale pattern shifts, proximity to Lake Michigan, and passing fronts can produce rapid swings in temperature. Short-term forecasting for a single calendar day combines synoptic model guidance, local effects (lake breeze, urban heat island), and on-the-ground observations.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about which temperature interval will be the lowest on that date and update as forecasts and observations change; interpret prices as relative measures of market belief rather than fixed forecasts.
Settlement will use the official reporting source and station specified in the event's settlement rules on the platform (typically an official National Weather Service observation for the Chicago area); check the event page for the designated station and dataset used for final settlement.
The event's rules define the observation window—markets commonly use the local calendar date at the designated official station (midnight to 11:59 PM local time), but you should confirm the precise window on the event page since settlement depends on that definition.
The six outcomes represent mutually exclusive temperature ranges for the lowest observed temperature on March 23, 2026; exactly one outcome will be chosen at settlement based on the official observation for the designated station and window.
A late-night frontal passage can drop temperatures quickly and shift the timing of the daytime minimum, precipitation and cloud cover reduce nighttime radiational cooling, and a lake breeze can moderate temperatures near the lake — each of these phenomena changes where and when the coldest reading occurs and therefore which outcome settles.
The event page shows the market close time; currently this market lists the close as TBD, so check back for the posted close time. Final settlement is announced after the official observation is verified according to the platform's published settlement procedures.