| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes will represent the lowest official temperature recorded in Chicago on March 22, 2026; it matters to traders and observers because late-winter/early-spring temperature swings can be large and affect heating demand, transportation, and event planning. The market aggregates expectations about that single calendar day’s minimum temperature.
Late March in Chicago sits in a transitional season where Arctic intrusions, spring warm-ups, and lake-effect moderation can all occur, producing high day-to-day variability. Historical climatology shows wide year-to-year swings on specific dates, and short-term synoptic patterns (frontal passages, blocking, and storm tracks) typically drive the realized minimum on a given day.
Market odds express how traders currently rank the relative likelihood of the available temperature outcomes and will update as new observations and model guidance arrive. Use the market odds alongside independent meteorological data to understand how expectations shift as the event approaches.
Settlement uses the specific observation protocol stated in the market contract—typically the official minimum temperature recorded at the designated Chicago observing station during the local calendar day from 00:00 to 23:59, according to the named data provider; consult the contract details for the exact station and reporting rules.
The market’s close time is set by the platform and is listed on the event page; the winning outcome is settled after the official observing agency publishes the daily minimum for March 22, 2026, per the contract’s settlement procedures.
The contract specifies the official data source—commonly a National Weather Service (NWS)/NOAA observation at a named Chicago station or an equivalent official dataset—so check the market rules for the exact provider and station used for settlement.
Look at multi-decade climatology for March 22 to understand typical seasonal expectations and variability, and combine that with recent trends (e.g., late-winter cold snaps or warm spring onsets) to gauge how unusual a given forecast would be; remember historical tendencies provide context but do not determine a single-day outcome.
Track global and regional numerical models (e.g., major medium-range models and their ensembles) for synoptic evolution, high-resolution short-range guidance for mesoscale details, surface observations and radiosonde profiles, snow-cover analyses, and sky/precipitation forecasts that affect nocturnal cooling and radiational loss.