| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago will be on March 21, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-interested parties because late-March temperatures affect energy demand, travel, and seasonal transition expectations.
Late March in Chicago sits in a transition zone between winter and spring, so daily lows can range from near-winter cold to mild spring values depending on synoptic patterns. Long-term climatology shows a warming trend over decades, but single-day outcomes are dominated by short-term weather systems and lake-effects from Lake Michigan.
Market odds aggregate real-time information from forecasts, observations, and participant beliefs; they provide a snapshot of collective expectations and will adjust as new weather data and model runs arrive.
The market will settle to the official temperature reported by the specific reporting station named in the event's settlement rules (typically a National Weather Service or NOAA station); consult the event page for the exact station and data source used for settlement.
The event currently lists 'Closes: TBD'; final trading close and the settlement timing will be posted on the market page. Settlement generally occurs after the official daily observations for March 21 are published by the designated data provider.
Definition details—such as whether temperatures are reported in Fahrenheit or Celsius, how values are rounded, and the measurement height—are specified in the event's settlement rules; these typically follow the conventions of the chosen official observing station and data source.
Historical climatology gives a baseline expectation and shows typical variability for March 21, but short-range model forecasts and current snow/soil conditions are more decisive for a specific date; combine climatology with up-to-date meteorological models and local observations.
Potential issues include station outages, changes in instrument siting or maintenance, temporary microclimate anomalies near the sensor, and post-event data corrections—check the market's dispute and data-source policies for how such cases are handled.