| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest official air temperature reported for Chicago will be on March 20, 2026; it matters because same‑day low temperatures affect energy demand, travel safety, and short‑term weather risk assessments.
Late‑March temperatures in Chicago are strongly influenced by the interplay of lingering winter air masses and the seasonal transition toward spring, so outcomes can swing with the timing of cold fronts or late‑season Arctic intrusions. Local features like urban heat island effects, snow cover, and the exact timing of overnight radiational cooling also shape the minimum temperature recorded on a given date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of what the official observing source will report and will update as new model guidance and observations arrive; treat prices as a summary of current information rather than a permanent estimate.
The market resolves to the official observing source specified in the event description; that is typically an NWS/ASOS (METAR) station or another official station named by the exchange. If the station is not listed on the page, the market operator will publish the resolution source before settlement.
Resolution follows the local date definition and time window stated in the event rules — commonly the local calendar date at the chosen observing station as used by the data provider (e.g., the local 00:00–23:59 period for that station). Check the event page for the precise timezone and window used for settlement.
The settled value will follow the measurement and rounding conventions of the designated observing system and the market's resolution rules (for example, the official whole‑degree reporting convention used by the station). The event page or rulebook specifies how fractional values and instrument readings are handled.
The market uses the single official source named in the event description for settlement; if multiple datasets or indices exist, the exchange's published resolution procedures explain how conflicts are resolved (for example, deferring to the National Weather Service or the designated ASOS site).
Watch synoptic model runs and ensemble spreads for frontal timing, high‑resolution mesoscale forecasts for cloud cover and precipitation, surface obs for snowpack and soil conditions, overnight temperature trends from nearby stations, and short‑range guidance about wind speed/direction changes that could inhibit or enhance nocturnal cooling.