| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25° to 26° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 29° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 23° to 24° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 21° to 22° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 20° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago will be on March 2, 2026; it matters because near-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, transportation, and local weather-sensitive operations. Traders use meteorological information to express views on which temperature range will occur.
Early March is a transitional month in Chicago with high variability: outcomes can range from late-winter cold outbreaks to milder conditions driven by southwesterly flows and lake moderation. Historical winters and occasional polar intrusions show the city can record very different lows from year to year, so background synoptic patterns are critical.
Market odds reflect aggregated beliefs about which temperature bin will be observed by the official reporting station and during the contract's defined time window; check the contract for the exact station and observation rules because those determine how the market resolves.
The contract specifies the authoritative reporting station or dataset used for resolution; common choices are National Weather Service/ASOS observations at a named airport (e.g., O'Hare) or the NWS daily climate summary. Check the market's contract text to see which source is binding.
Unless the contract states otherwise, 'on Mar 2, 2026' refers to the local calendar date from 00:00 to 23:59 local Chicago time. Note that March 2, 2026 occurs before the spring daylight saving change, so local time will be Central Standard Time (CST).
Resolution follows the market's published rules: it will use the specific source named in the contract. If multiple sources are referenced or ambiguity exists, the market's resolution policy describes tie-break or adjudication procedures—review the contract and platform dispute rules.
Yes. Minimum temperatures can vary substantially across the metropolitan area due to lake effect, urban heat island, elevation, and local snow cover. The designated official station in the contract determines which local conditions matter for resolution.
The market's close time is set by the platform and is currently listed as TBD; outcome resolution usually occurs after the official daily observations are published (often within 24–48 hours), but exact timing depends on the contract and the platform's verification process—monitor the market page for updates.