| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which outcome will represent the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 19, 2026; it matters for traders hedging weather exposure and for anyone following short-term climate variability in the region.
Chicago in mid‑March sits in a transition season with frequent swings between milder and cold conditions, so late‑season subfreezing nights remain possible. Synoptic drivers such as Arctic intrusions, the timing of cold fronts, cloud cover and lake influence typically determine whether a notably cold minimum occurs on a given date.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s collective expectation across the six discrete outcome ranges available; they update as forecasts and observations evolve and should be read as a real‑time consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement will be based on the official lowest air temperature during the contract’s defined observation period on March 19, 2026, per the exchange’s resolution rules — check the market page for the final close time and settlement window.
The event will settle to the data source and station specified in the market’s resolution/definitions section; exchanges commonly rely on official National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) observations from the designated Chicago station, but you must confirm the exact station and agency named on this market’s page.
Each of the six outcomes maps to a predefined temperature range shown on the market page; tie situations (e.g., identical reported minima or missing data) are resolved according to the exchange’s published resolution procedure — typically using the primary data source’s final observation or a specified fallback — so review those rules for details.
Consult short‑range numerical weather prediction models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), National Weather Service forecast discussion and grids for Chicago, recent surface observations, satellite/radar for cloud cover trends, lake‑temperature and lake‑effect guidance, and historical climatology for mid‑March minima in the Chicago area.
The market’s resolution policy specifies fallbacks and revision windows (for example, using an alternate official station or final adjusted observations); any dispute or data omission is handled according to that documented policy, so consult the exchange’s resolution and appeals procedures for this event.