| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° to 25° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 17° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22° to 23° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 18° to 19° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20° to 21° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which temperature category will record the lowest air temperature in Chicago on March 18, 2026; it matters because temperatures affect transportation, energy demand, and weather-sensitive decisions. Market prices synthesize trader expectations about the day’s minimum temperature.
Chicago’s early-spring temperatures can swing widely due to shifting storm tracks and air-mass intrusions, so a single date in March often reflects high natural variability. The contract lists six discrete outcomes (temperature bins or values) and is sourced on KALSHI; check the market page for the precise outcome definitions and the official resolution rules.
Market odds represent the collective expectation of traders about which outcome will occur and will change as new weather observations and forecasts arrive. For resolution, rely on the contract’s stated data source and rules rather than on interim price levels.
It means the minimum air temperature measured for the specified Chicago observation site during the 24-hour period defined by the contract; consult the market’s rules to see the exact station, measurement unit, and the timeframe used for the daily minimum.
The contract’s resolution details specify the official data source and station (for example, a designated National Weather Service/ASOS site); check the market rules page to confirm which station is used for this event.
Resolution occurs after the official data for March 18, 2026 are published by the designated reporting agency; the market rules state when the data are considered final and which bulletins or archives will be used for verification.
Each outcome corresponds to a clearly defined temperature range or exact value as listed on the market page; verify the outcome boundaries and any rounding or tie-breaking rules in the contract description before trading.
Factors include the arrival of Arctic air or a cold frontal passage for very low minima, persistent cloudiness or southerly flow for milder minima, and local snow cover and wind conditions that modulate overnight cooling.