| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 14° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8° to 9° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6° to 7° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 12° to 13° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 10° to 11° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the lowest observed in Chicago on March 17, 2026; it matters for traders hedging weather risk and for anyone tracking late‑season temperature extremes in a major U.S. city.
Chicago in mid‑March sits in a transition season when both winter and spring patterns are possible, so outcomes can swing with the timing of air-mass changes, lake interactions, and overnight conditions. Historical variability is driven by synoptic-scale cold fronts, local lake effects, cloud cover, and whether official observation sites (e.g., O'Hare or Midway) are influenced by urban heat or airport operations.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of which temperature range will end up as the daily minimum; as forecasts and observations evolve in the run‑up to March 17, prices typically update to reflect that new information.
It refers to the minimum air temperature recorded for the specified Chicago observing location during the local calendar day of March 17, 2026, as defined by the market's settlement rules and official data source.
The market's close time is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement will occur after the official observing authority releases the final daily minimum for March 17, 2026, according to the market's stated settlement procedures.
The event will settle to the official source and station named in the market rules — commonly an NWS/NOAA Chicago station such as O'Hare or Midway — so check the event page for the exact station and data provider used for settlement.
Watch the timing of fronts and air‑mass changes, overnight cloud trends, current surface observations across Chicago, snow cover, and wind forecasts; short‑range model updates and local observations in the 48 hours before March 17 often have the biggest impact.
The six outcomes represent mutually exclusive temperature bins or categories for the daily minimum; the winning outcome will be the bin that contains the officially reported lowest temperature for the specified station on March 17, 2026, per the market's settlement rules.