| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 13° to 14° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 17° to 18° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 19° to 20° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 21° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 15° to 16° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will represent the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 16, 2026, using the official observation specified by the contract. It matters because overnight low temperature affects transportation, energy demand, event planning, and weather risk management in the region.
Mid-March in Chicago is a transitional period between winter and spring and is known for high day-to-day variability: strong cold-air intrusions can drive very cold nights, while southerly flow or lake-moderating effects can produce relatively mild lows. Historical climatology shows wide swings at this date, so short‑term synoptic setup and local conditions matter more than seasonal averages.
Market odds (prices) reflect traders’ collective assessment of which temperature range is most likely given current forecasts and data; they update as new model runs, observations, and reports arrive. Use the market as a realtime indicator of expectations, but the final outcome is determined by the official observation and the market’s resolution rules.
The contract specifies the official observation site and source (for example an NWS/NOAA station or specified ASOS/COOP station); consult the market’s rules page to see the exact station that will be used for resolution.
The market’s resolution rules define the measurement window (typically the calendar day in local Chicago time or a 24‑hour period defined in the contract); check the contract text to confirm the precise start and end times used for this event.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range; the exact numeric cutoffs and labels are listed on the market page or in the event’s contract. Refer to that page for the authoritative outcome boundaries.
Resolution procedures for missing or questionable data are covered in the market’s terms: typical approaches include using a secondary official station, using NWS/NOAA corrected data, or following explicit tie‑breaking rules described in the contract—check those clauses for the exact method.
The market close time is listed on the event page; if it shows TBD, the platform will post the closing time before trading begins. Resolution occurs after the official observation for March 16 is available and any required quality checks or tie‑breaking procedures in the contract are completed.