| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago will be on March 15, 2026. Outcomes matter to energy providers, event planners, transportation agencies, and anyone affected by late-winter/early-spring temperature swings.
Mid‑March is a transition period in Chicago when large swings between cold and mild conditions are common; synoptic storms, Arctic intrusions, or early warm Pacific flows can all set very different lows. Local factors such as lake influence, snow cover, and urban heat effects further modulate night‑time minima, so historical averages provide only a rough guide.
Market odds summarize traders’ collective views based on current forecasts and information; they are a real‑time signal of market sentiment, not a guaranteed forecast. Interpret them alongside meteorological forecasts and official observation sources named in the market rules.
The specific resolving station should be listed in the market's resolution text; many Chicago temperature contracts use the National Weather Service/ASOS observation at the named airport (e.g., O'Hare or Midway). If the contract does not name a station, consult the market page or rules on KALSHI for the designated data source.
Most contracts define the measurement window as the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local Chicago time), but some use UTC or a different 24‑hour period—check the market's resolution criteria to confirm the exact time window.
Fresh snow increases surface albedo and promotes radiational cooling on clear nights, tending to lower the minimum; persistent cloud cover or precipitation acts like a blanket and usually keeps nighttime temperatures higher.
Resolution fallback procedures are specified in the market rules—common approaches include using the nearest official NWS station, manually quality‑checked NWS archives, or a designated secondary source. Consult the contract's dispute/resolution section for the exact policy.
The listing currently shows a closing time of TBD; resolution typically happens after the official daily observations and any required verification are published by the designated data provider. Check the market page for updates on closing and settlement timing.