| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature observed in Chicago will be on March 14, 2026. It matters for energy demand, transportation planning, and anyone monitoring late‑winter/early‑spring weather risks in the Chicago area.
March is a highly variable month in Chicago: it sits in a transitional season where Arctic outbreaks, Gulf moisture, and Great Lakes influences can all produce very different outcomes from one year to the next. Chicago has a long recorded climate history with frequent day‑to‑day swings in temperature during March, so same‑date historical minima and recent synoptic trends are useful context for traders.
Market odds reflect traders' collective views about which pre‑defined temperature bin will contain the day’s minimum, not a single deterministic forecast. To understand results, check the market page for the exact bin definitions and the official data source and settlement rules used to determine the lowest temperature.
The close time for this market is listed as TBD on the platform; settlement will occur after the official observing period for March 14 ends and the market operator obtains the official lowest temperature according to the market’s settlement rules. Check the market page for updates on close time and the settlement timeline.
The market’s rules specify the official source (for example an NWS official station or another designated observing site). Participants should consult the market’s settlement rules to confirm the exact station and dataset used for determination.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific, mutually exclusive temperature bin defined by the market. The exact numeric boundaries for those bins are shown on the market page; review them before trading to ensure you understand which temperatures map to each outcome.
Hourly observation data are typically available in near‑real time, but markets often wait for any required quality control or the officially archived daily value. Settlement timing is determined by the market operator and will be described on the event page—expect settlement once the designated official source posts its final daily minimum.
Useful context includes long‑term climatology for March 14, recent year‑to‑year variability, the current forecast and ensemble runs for the days immediately before and on March 14, recent snow cover, and large‑scale indices (e.g., Arctic Oscillation/NAO) that influence the likelihood of Arctic intrusions. Also check model timing for frontal passages and expected overnight radiational cooling.