| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will represent the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 13, 2026. It matters to traders, event planners, and anyone with weather-exposed operations because the realized low affects short-term risk and operational decisions.
March in Chicago is a transitional month with high day-to-day variability driven by intrusions of Arctic air, mid-latitude cyclones, and moderating effects from Lake Michigan. Historical March days have produced a wide range of lows, so outcomes can shift substantially as synoptic patterns evolve; the market uses a predefined settlement source and outcome buckets listed on the contract page.
Market odds express the crowd’s relative expectations about which bucket will contain the observed low; they are a live, collective signal but always subject to change as new weather data arrive. Always consult the market’s contract text for exact settlement rules and data sources before trading.
The contract text specifies the official observation window and time zone (typically a local midnight-to-midnight period at the designated station). Because U.S. daylight saving time changes in early March, verify the market page to confirm the time standard and exact start/end times used for settlement.
The market’s contract text names the official data source (for example, a specific NOAA/NWS observing station or dataset). Traders should check that settlement clause on the Kalshi market page; settlement follows the named source and Kalshi’s published dispute/verification procedures.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature bucket or discrete value listed on the market listing. The exact boundaries, rounding rules, and inclusive/exclusive endpoints are provided in the contract details on the market page.
The market close time is set on the market page (currently shown as TBD). Some markets close before the observation window to prevent last-minute informational advantages; check the market page for the firm closing timestamp and any pre-close halts.
Short-term high-resolution model runs (e.g., convection-allowing guidance), global models for synoptic pattern timing, surface observations, weather balloons, and satellite/remote-sensing updates all move the market. As the date nears, observed trends and high-frequency model output typically carry the most weight for determining the likely low.