| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° to 25° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Chicago will be on March 12, 2026; it matters because daily low temperatures affect energy demand, transportation, and public-safety planning.
March is a transition month for Chicago weather, when late-season cold snaps and rapid warming can both occur; historical variability means a single synoptic event (cold front, arctic air mass, or clear radiational night) can drive very different outcomes. Markets like this bundle those meteorological uncertainties into discrete outcomes based on an official observing site and time window.
Market odds reflect trader beliefs about which temperature range will be observed; interpret them as a real-time aggregation of weather expectations rather than guaranteed forecasts, and consult official observation records for final verification.
Settlement will follow the exchange's specified official source—commonly a National Weather Service observing station such as Chicago O'Hare or Chicago Midway; check the market's rule text to confirm which station or dataset is authoritative.
The market uses the local calendar date at the designated official station—generally the 24-hour period from 00:00 to 23:59 local time at that station; consult the market rules for any special timing or daylight-saving adjustments.
The contract specifies a single reporting station or official dataset for settlement; if multiple stations exist, the market rules will name which one determines the outcome and describe any tie-breaking or adjustment procedures.
Lake effects depend on wind direction: onshore winds tend to keep lakeshore temperatures milder by advecting warmer lake air, while offshore winds allow inland and shore locations to cool more rapidly, so outcomes near the lake may diverge from inland readings.
Settlement timing varies by exchange—typically after the official daily observation is published and any necessary quality-control checks are completed; this can range from hours to a few days, and the market's rule page will state the expected settlement procedure and any conditions for delayed settlement.