| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 27° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 17% | 20¢ | 21¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 23% | 20¢ | 24¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 44% | 45¢ | 49¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 5% | 6¢ | 7¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest air temperature observed in Chicago on March 11, 2026, as specified for settlement. Outcomes matter to energy managers, transportation planners, and anyone sensitive to cold-weather risk because low temperatures influence demand, safety, and operations.
Chicago in March is climatologically variable: late winter air masses and spring warm-ups both occur, so a wide range of lows is plausible. The market will settle to the observing station and dataset named in the event rules, and that choice determines which thermometer record is used. Seasonal snow cover, synoptic-scale cold intrusions, and urban heat-island effects all shape typical March lows.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants and move as new forecasts, observations, and analyses arrive; they are a real-time signal, not a fixed official forecast. For operational decisions, use the market alongside official NWS/NOAA forecasts and local observations.
The market's settlement rules specify the official observing station and dataset; check the event page for that exact station (commonly an NWS/NOAA airport station such as O'Hare or Midway if listed).
The event defines the measurement window in its settlement criteria—typically the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59:59 local time) at the specified observing station; confirm the precise start and end times on the event page.
Settlement follows the exchange's data-quality rules: usually final quality-controlled observations from the specified dataset are used, and if gaps exist the market applies predefined fallback procedures (for example nearest valid hourly reading or alternate official source) described in the event rules.
Important context includes typical March variability for Chicago (late-winter cold snaps are possible), recent trends in seasonal temperature, and whether recent snow cover or ground conditions are present—these factors set the climatological baseline for plausible lows.
Short- and medium-range forecast models (e.g., global models and regional guidance), high-resolution short-term models (e.g., HRRR), NWS official forecasts and discussions, surface observations from the specified station, and satellite/radar trends all commonly influence trader expectations and market prices.