| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome buckets will contain the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago on March 10, 2026. It matters to traders, weather observers, and anyone with weather-exposed risk who wants a market-based view of expected conditions on that date.
Early March in Chicago is climatologically a transition period between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing from late-winter cold to milder springlike conditions depending on large-scale patterns. Year-to-year variability, the timing of spring-like intrusions, and local influences such as Lake Michigan and recent snow cover all shape outcomes for a specific date.
Market prices express the trading community's consensus about which temperature bucket will contain the lowest observed value; they should be read as relative market expectations rather than definitive forecasts.
The contract's settlement rules specify the authoritative data source and observing station used for settlement. Exchanges commonly use National Weather Service/NOAA observations for an official Chicago station (for example, the designated climate station listed in the market), so check the market description for the exact source.
The market's rules define the measurement window—typically the 24-hour calendar day at the designated observation site in local time. Because local clock rules (daylight saving time) can apply in March, verify whether the contract uses local standard or daylight time and the precise start/end times.
Outcome definitions (for example, contiguous temperature ranges or buckets) are listed in the market description. The outcome whose range contains the verified lowest observed temperature reported by the specified source will be declared the settled winner; confirm bin edges and whether endpoints are inclusive in the contract text.
Monitor forecasts for large-scale air-mass changes (cold fronts or warm surges), nighttime cloud cover and precipitation chances, recent or forecast snow cover, wind regimes that bring lake moderation versus continental air, and any mesoscale features that could produce unusually cold pockets or enhanced warming overnight.
After the observation window closes the exchange will publish a settlement notice per its procedures, citing the verified reading and source. You can independently verify the settled value using the specified authoritative observation (for example, the official NWS/NOAA hourly or daily report for the designated station) referenced in the market rules.