| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official lowest daily temperature recorded in Chicago on April 3, 2026. Traders use this contract to speculate on mid-spring climate variability in the Midwest.
Chicago's weather in early April is notoriously volatile, as the region experiences the transition from winter to spring. Historically, temperatures can range significantly due to shifting air masses and the influence of Lake Michigan, which can exert a cooling effect during the spring months.
The prices in this market reflect the collective expectation of weather patterns and historical climate data for this specific spring date.
The official reading is typically derived from the primary National Weather Service reporting station for Chicago, usually located at O'Hare International Airport.
The market resolves based on the official temperature recorded by the designated weather station, regardless of how unusual the weather conditions may be.
Proximity to the lake often keeps the city cooler during spring days, potentially pushing the minimum daily temperature lower than inland suburban areas.
This market specifically tracks the lowest temperature recorded during the 24-hour calendar day of April 3, 2026.
Trading remains open until the market closure date, allowing participants to adjust positions as meteorologists issue more accurate forecasts closer to the date.