| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official minimum temperature recorded in Chicago on April 21, 2026, serving as a derivative on meteorological data. It provides a financial mechanism to hedge against or speculate on climate variability in the Midwest during the transition into late spring.
Chicago's mid-April weather is historically volatile, situated in a period where rapid shifts between winter remnants and early spring warmth are common. Meteorological records from O'Hare International Airport—the official reporting station—often reveal significant fluctuations based on Lake Michigan's thermal influence and transient polar air masses. Understanding these historical patterns is essential for assessing the likelihood of temperature outcomes on this specific date.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants regarding the probability of specific temperature ranges occurring. Prices are influenced by long-range climate models, historical frequency data, and emerging weather patterns as the date approaches.
The official temperature is typically derived from data recorded at Chicago O'Hare International Airport, the primary reporting station for the city.
The market relies on the official meteorological reading recorded by the National Weather Service; any extreme event captured by that official record will determine the final settlement.
The lowest temperature refers specifically to the daily minimum observed within the 24-hour window of April 21, 2026, rather than an average across the day or month.
No, this market tracks the actual ambient air temperature, not the 'feels-like' temperature or wind chill calculations.
Settlement occurs once the official historical climate data for April 21, 2026, is published and verified by the relevant meteorological authorities.