| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official minimum temperature recorded at Chicago's primary weather reporting station on April 2, 2026. It serves as a benchmark for local climate volatility and seasonal transition patterns in the Midwest.
April in Chicago is characterized by high atmospheric variability as the region shifts from winter to spring. Historically, temperatures on this date can range from deep freezes caused by lingering polar air masses to unseasonably warm conditions driven by southern moisture transport. Official records are typically sourced from the National Weather Service station at O'Hare International Airport.
Market participants use these contracts to hedge against weather-related risks or speculate on the accuracy of long-range meteorological models.
The official record is determined by the National Weather Service monitoring station at O'Hare International Airport (ORD).
The market resolves based on the official, verified lowest temperature reading published by the National Weather Service for that specific calendar day.
April is a shoulder season where the clash between retreating cold air from Canada and advancing warm air from the Gulf of Mexico creates significant daily temperature swings.
While historical averages provide a baseline, they do not account for specific synoptic weather patterns or short-term climate anomalies occurring on the target date.
The result is confirmed once the National Weather Service publishes the official daily climate summary for April 2, 2026, following the conclusion of the 24-hour period.