| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the daily minimum temperature recorded in Chicago on April 19, 2026. These outcomes are based on official meteorological data, serving as a hedge against weather-related volatility.
Chicago's mid-April weather is historically transitional, often caught between lingering winter chills and the onset of spring. Local temperatures are heavily influenced by the 'lake effect,' where proximity to Lake Michigan can drastically alter localized readings compared to inland areas. Climate data from O'Hare International Airport typically serves as the official reference point for city-wide observations.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders regarding the likelihood of specific temperature bands occurring on that date.
Official temperature data is typically sourced from the National Weather Service station located at Chicago O'Hare International Airport.
The lowest temperature is defined as the minimum dry-bulb temperature recorded within the 24-hour period of April 19, 2026, UTC or local time as specified by the market rules.
Yes, all valid meteorological phenomena occurring on the specified date will be reflected in the official reading, regardless of whether they are considered anomalous.
Markets typically use strict numerical ranges; please review the specific contract specifications to see if the ranges are inclusive or exclusive of the boundary integers.
This date represents the mid-spring period in Chicago, a time characterized by high variance and unpredictability in temperature ranges.