| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 97% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 54° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to forecast the lowest air temperature recorded in Austin, TX on March 9, 2026; it matters for energy demand, event planning, transportation, and local weather risk management.
March is a transition month in Central Texas that can produce wide swings between mild spring conditions and late-winter cold snaps driven by Arctic or continental air masses. Historic events (including rare severe freezes) show that synoptic-scale fronts and local factors can create outcomes that differ substantially from seasonal averages.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and expectations about meteorological conditions and update as new forecasts and observations arrive; treat them as a real‑time consensus signal that changes with incoming data and model runs.
Resolution details (official observing station and the local calendar day/time window used) are set on the market's resolution page; typically such markets use an official NWS/ASOS observation for the local calendar day, so check the event's resolution clause for the exact source and time window.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive options defined by the market creator—commonly they are temperature ranges or discrete bins that together cover all possible lowest temperatures; view the market page to see the exact definitions for each outcome.
The daily minimum usually occurs in the pre-dawn hours, but the official minimum used for settlement depends on the market's specified station and calendar-day definition; if the coldest reading occurs near midnight, confirm whether the market uses local calendar day boundaries or an observing-period definition.
Major numerical weather model updates (e.g., global models and their ensembles), surface and upper-air observations, short-range ensemble guidance, and live reports of frontal passages or cloud cover typically drive price changes as they alter the expected overnight cooling and frontal timing.
If the primary data source is missing or flagged, the market's resolution procedure will specify fallback rules—commonly using an alternate official station, corroborating NWS products, or the best available official dataset; review the event's resolution terms for the exact fallback protocol.