| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° to 54° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to forecast the lowest air temperature recorded in Austin on March 8, 2026. Results matter for local energy demand, transportation planning, and anyone sensitive to cold-weather impacts.
Austin sits in a humid subtropical climate where early March can swing between mild and occasionally very cold conditions depending on upstream weather systems. Large-scale drivers such as late‑season Arctic intrusions, frontal passages, and seasonal patterns (e.g., ENSO phase) create the interannual variability that produces unusually warm or unusually cold single‑day lows.
Market prices summarize how participants collectively expect the different temperature outcomes to play out, and they move as new weather observations and model runs arrive. Use prices as a real‑time signal of changing expectations, but check the contract description to understand exact settlement rules.
The market will resolve to the official data source specified on the contract page; resolution commonly relies on National Weather Service or other designated station observations for the Austin area. Consult the market's rules or resolution notes to see the precise station and data feed that will be used.
Outcome determination typically waits until the local calendar day ends and the official daily observations or finalized data are available; that can mean resolution is posted hours to a few days after March 8 depending on data publication and the exchange's processing rules. Check the contract for any stated settlement lag.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature bucket or exact value range as defined on the market page. The winning outcome is the bucket into which the official lowest temperature observation for Austin on March 8, 2026 falls; read the contract listing to see the exact thresholds for each of the six outcomes.
Rapid changes in model guidance from a strengthening cold front, last‑minute shifts in cloud cover (clearing vs. overcast), onset or cessation of precipitation, and overnight wind changes that alter boundary‑layer mixing are the most likely near‑term factors to shift expectations.
Monitor NWS Austin forecasts and observations, hourly airport ASOS/METAR reports for the designated station, short‑range numerical model runs and ensemble guidance (e.g., 0–72 hour forecasts), radar/satellite for convection and cloud trends, and local weather‑service briefings; also check the market page for any official data bulletins used for settlement.