| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° to 58° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 54° or below | 81% | 43¢ | 81¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 26% | 24¢ | 57¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will contain the lowest air temperature recorded in Austin on March 7, 2026, letting traders express views about that single-day minimum. The outcome matters for local energy use, transportation planning, and anyone sensitive to overnight cold or freeze risk.
Early March in Austin is transitional between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing with passing cold fronts, clear nights, or Gulf-influenced moderation. Local factors—station siting, urban heat island effects, and recent soil or vegetation conditions—can also affect the overnight low. The contract on KALSHI divides the possible low into six mutually exclusive outcomes that resolve to a single winning bin.
Market prices reflect how traders collectively weigh climatology and short-term weather forecasts for that specific date and location; movement in prices shows changing expectations rather than a definitive forecast. Always read the contract's resolution language to know exactly which observation and time window will determine the result.
The contract's resolution section specifies the official observing station or data source and the exact time window (for example, the local calendar day or a specified 24-hour UTC window); consult the KALSHI market listing for that authoritative text, which governs how the result will be determined.
The six outcomes partition the spectrum of possible lowest temperatures into mutually exclusive numeric bins; the market page lists the precise boundaries for each bin and only the bin containing the official reported minimum will resolve as the winner.
Resolution follows the exchange's documented fallback and dispute procedures—typically deferring to the official observing agency's final, quality-controlled record or a designated backup data source as stated in the contract.
Yes; the contract defines the applicable observation period (for example, midnight-to-midnight in Austin local time or another specified window). Verify that definition on the market page because it determines which overnight hours are included.
Combine Austin climatology for early March with short-range numerical weather prediction output, local surface observations in the days leading to March 7, and analyses of frontal timing, cloud cover, and wind forecasts—focus on factors that control overnight cooling since the minimum typically occurs near local sunrise.