| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or above | 86% | 86¢ | 94¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 10% | 4¢ | 6¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 61° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will be the lowest observed in Austin on March 6, 2026; it matters for local weather risk management (agriculture, energy, events) and for trading on short-term weather outcomes.
Early March in Austin sits in a seasonal transition: it can be mild but is still susceptible to incursions of colder air from the north. Historical variability is driven by the timing and strength of cold fronts, local radiational cooling, and occasional late-winter storms, so single-day lows can swing substantially from year to year.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders and will shift as new weather model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive; think of the market price as a live consensus signal rather than a fixed prediction.
The market will settle to the official lowest air temperature recorded for the local calendar day of March 6, 2026, at the designated reporting station specified in the market rules; check the market page for the exact station and measurement interval used for settlement.
The market's six outcomes correspond to the discrete temperature buckets shown on the event page; those buckets define non‑overlapping ranges and the market will settle to the bucket that contains the recorded lowest temperature.
Trading close time is listed on the market page (currently TBD); the measurement window for the lowest temperature is the 24‑hour local calendar day of March 6, 2026, unless the market rules specify a different interval—consult the event rules for final timing.
Settlement will use the observation source named in the market’s settlement rules—typically an official meteorological reporting station such as a National Weather Service or airport sensor—so review the event rules to confirm the precise data source and quality controls.
Participants include local stakeholders (agriculture, outdoor events), energy and utilities managing short‑term demand exposure, proprietary traders and weather funds seeking short‑term volatility, and weather enthusiasts; motivations range from hedging operational risk to speculating on forecast changes.