| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° or above | 80% | 44¢ | 71¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 8% | 5¢ | 8¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $942 | Trade → |
| 60° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $916 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 5% | 4¢ | 14¢ | — | $822 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the lowest observed in Austin on March 5, 2026; it matters because short-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, transportation risk, and local weather-sensitive decisions. Trading aggregates diverse expectations about weather conditions on that specific date.
Austin's early March climate sits in a transitional season when both mild and arctic air masses can influence overnight lows, so outcomes can swing with the timing of fronts and cloud cover. Local microclimates (urban heat island, proximity to waterways, elevation) and the choice of observing station have historically caused day-to-day variability in recorded minimums. This market resolves to a single official measurement source and time window specified on the contract page.
Market odds reflect the aggregated beliefs of traders about which temperature range will be the minimum that day; they are best interpreted as collective information about expected conditions and uncertainty rather than precise forecasts. Watch how odds shift over time to see how incoming weather observations and model forecasts update market expectations.
This market has six discrete outcomes; each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range or bin defined on the contract page, and only the bin containing the official lowest temperature on Mar 5, 2026 will settle as the winning outcome.
The contract specifies the official data source and observing station used for settlement; check the market page for that resolution source (commonly an NWS/NOAA station or ASOS report) because settlement follows that stated dataset.
The market resolves according to the time window defined in the contract (typically the local calendar date from 00:00 to 23:59 local time or the observation period of the official station); confirm the exact window on the contract page before trading.
Settlement adheres to the contract's rules regarding official observations and any post-event corrections; if the official source issues revisions, the contract explains whether those revisions are accepted and how disputes are handled, so review the resolution policy.
Monitor high-resolution weather models for frontal timing, overnight cloud cover forecasts, surface observations and trends from nearby stations, and ensemble spread to gauge uncertainty; sudden shifts in model runs or observed frontal position can materially change overnight low expectations.