| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° or above | 66% | 68¢ | 70¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 20% | 16¢ | 17¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 2% | 2¢ | 6¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 60° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $622 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Austin on March 4, 2026 will be; it matters because extreme low temperatures affect energy demand, infrastructure stress, and local weather impacts. Outcomes let traders express views about near-term weather risks for Austin.
The outcome will be determined from official meteorological observations for Austin on that calendar date; the market page and contract specify the precise reporting station and data source. March is a transitional month in Central Texas when intruding cold fronts or lingering winter air masses can produce unusually low overnight minima, so historical variability is moderate. The market currently lists six discrete outcome bins that cover a range of possible low temperatures.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about which temperature bin will contain the recorded minimum; interpret them as a consensus signal about relative likelihoods rather than fixed forecasts. Check the contract resolution rules and the cited observation source to understand how the final result will be determined.
The contract resolves to the official reporting station specified on the market page; that is typically the NWS/NOAA station used for Austin (commonly the Austin–Bergstrom ASOS) — consult the market's contract text for the definitive station name.
The measurement covers the 24-hour calendar day for March 4, 2026 in Austin local time (midnight to midnight), as defined in the market's resolution rules on the event page.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature range listed on the market page; after the official observation is published, the market will resolve to the single outcome whose range contains the reported minimum temperature.
Resolution will rely on the official meteorological observation source cited in the contract (for example, NWS/NOAA ASOS/METAR records for the designated Austin station); the market page identifies which dataset is authoritative for settlement.
The market's resolution policy covers missing or disputed data — typical approaches include using the best available official backup record, applying documented tie-breaking rules, or following the panel/arbitration process specified in the contract; review the event page resolution notes for the precise procedure.