| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $712 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will contain the lowest temperature recorded in Austin, Texas, on March 3, 2026. It matters to traders who want to express views on short-term weather and to anyone tracking cold-weather risk for that date.
Early March is a transitional month in Central Texas when synoptic patterns can produce either mild nights or brief cold snaps; year-to-year variability is driven by large-scale atmospheric patterns and short-term fronts. The event page lists six outcome bins and will settle based on an official observing source and methodology specified in the market rules.
Market prices reflect the consensus view of traders about which outcome bin will contain the observed low; use prices as a real-time, crowd-sourced signal rather than a deterministic forecast.
The event's close time is listed as TBD on the page; the final outcome will be determined after the official observing dataset for March 3, 2026 has been published by the source named in the market rules. Check the event rules for the exact settlement schedule.
The market will use the specific station and data source specified in the event's settlement rules (for example, an official NWS/AWOS/ASOS or a cooperative station). If the event page does not name the station, consult the market rules or ask the market operator for the definitive source.
Settlement time windows are defined in the market rules; typically 'on March 3' means the local-calendar date from 00:00 to 23:59 (local time) at the specified observing station, but you should verify timezone and any DST considerations in the event documentation.
Boundary handling is governed by the event's settlement conventions (for example, whether bins are inclusive of their lower or upper bounds). Check the event rules for tie-break and bin-inclusion language to see how such cases are settled.
Look at multi-year records for early March lows in Austin to understand typical variability and the frequency of freezing events; combine that climatology with current forecasts (front timing, cloud cover, winds) to form a view, and always confirm which station and dataset the market will use for settlement.