| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the lowest air temperature observed in Austin on March 29, 2026. Outcomes matter to weather-sensitive planners, energy traders, and anyone hedging or speculating on near-term temperature risk in the Austin area.
Late March is a transitional period in Central Texas when spells of unseasonable cold can still occur alongside rapid warm-ups; Austin's observed minimums reflect that seasonal volatility. Local climatology, recent trends, and the large-scale pattern over North America (e.g., presence of troughs or ridges) set the baseline for expectations ahead of the date.
Market odds are a continuously updated aggregation of participants' expectations and available forecast information; they summarize current sentiment but are not guarantees. Use them alongside official weather forecasts and the settlement rules shown on the event page.
Settlement follows the official 'Settlement Source' listed on the market page—check the contract for the authoritative reporting station (commonly an NWS ASOS/COOP site such as Austin-Bergstrom if specified). The market will use that listed source for the final value.
The date window is defined in the event's settlement rules on the market page; typically it refers to the calendar date in the local time zone indicated by the contract (e.g., 00:00–23:59 local time), so consult the event details to confirm.
Settlement occurs after the designated reporting authority publishes the official observations and after any quality-control or tie-resolution procedures specified in the contract; the event page lists the expected settlement timeline and rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range or bin defined in the market's rules; the outcome whose range contains the observed lowest temperature (per the settlement source) will be declared the winner—see the market page for exact bin boundaries.
Watch high-resolution model runs for frontal timing, NWS forecast discussions for synoptic updates, satellite and radar for cloud/precip trends, and local surface observations (ASOS/mesonet) to see how nighttime cooling and wind conditions are evolving.