| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature observed in Austin, Texas will be on March 28, 2026. It matters for anyone tracking weather risk for agriculture, outdoor events, energy demand, and short‑term climate variability.
Late March in Central Texas is a transitional period when synoptic-scale fronts, Gulf moisture, and spring sunshine can all influence nighttime temperatures. Local factors — the official observing site, urban heat island effects, and microclimates across the Austin metro area — also shape observed minima; past years show notable variability from night to night.
Market odds reflect the combined expectations of traders, forecasters, and available observational/model information and will change as new forecasts and observations arrive. Treat market prices as a real‑time signal to combine with official weather forecasts, model ensembles, and local observations rather than a definitive forecast on their own.
The market will settle to the official data source and observing site specified in the event's settlement rules. That is typically a National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) or other designated official station; consult the event page or settlement documentation for the exact station name and data provider.
The event's settlement rules define the measurement period (commonly local midnight to midnight in Austin's time zone). Verify the precise local time convention used on the event page to ensure you understand which hours are included.
This market lists six discrete outcomes; the event documentation explains whether those correspond to exact reported temperatures, integer degree bins, or ranges and how any rounding or truncation is applied. Review the outcome definitions before trading.
Settlement follows the fallback and quality‑control procedures in the market's rules, which typically specify alternate nearby stations, post‑event quality‑controlled NWS products, or an adjudication process. The event page will cite the exact fallback protocol.
The event currently shows 'Closes: TBD'; the platform will announce the market close time and publish the official settled value after the observation period in the settlement section of the event page, along with the authoritative source used for settlement.