| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the lowest observed air temperature in Austin on March 27, 2026; it matters because overnight low temperatures affect energy demand, public safety, and short‑term weather-sensitive planning. Market prices aggregate participants' expectations about that night's temperature outcome.
Austin's late‑March climate sits near the transition from winter to spring, so nights can vary from mild to occasionally very cold when Arctic or polar air masses push south. Regional synoptic patterns, Gulf moisture and recent examples of late‑season cold snaps all contribute to meaningful day‑to‑day variability for late‑March lows.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation about which predefined temperature bin will contain the lowest observed value and will move as new forecast data and trades arrive. Use them as a real‑time signal about changing expectations rather than a guaranteed forecast.
The market’s resolution section names the official reporting station(s) and instrument(s) used (for example, a specified NWS ASOS/AWOS or other authoritative station). Check the event description for the exact station(s) and any permitted secondary sources.
Most contracts use the local calendar day for the location named (Austin, Central Time), but the precise start/end times and whether UTC timestamps are applied are listed in the market’s resolution rules—confirm those details on the event page.
The event page lists all six outcome ranges, including whether endpoints are inclusive and how temperatures are rounded or averaged; consult the contract’s outcome definitions and resolution procedures for exact thresholds.
Resolution procedures handle ties and data gaps—common approaches include using the lowest reported value among the specified station(s) or following a designated backup data source; the event’s resolution rules specify tie‑breakers and contingency procedures.
Major causes of forecast change include the timing/intensity of an approaching front, fast shifts in model guidance for cloud cover or winds, sudden changes in moisture advection, and mesoscale events (e.g., overnight precipitation) that alter radiational cooling.