| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature measured in Austin on March 26, 2026 will be; it matters for local energy demand, event planning, and agricultural or infrastructure decisions that are sensitive to cold conditions.
Late March is a transitional time in central Texas, when warm spring patterns can be interrupted by strong cold fronts or late-season arctic intrusions. Day-to-day lows on a given date can therefore vary widely depending on synoptic weather patterns, cloud cover, and local effects in the Austin area.
Market prices aggregate trader views and incoming weather information (model runs, observations, forecasts) into a single, continually updating signal; use them as a real-time synthesis of available information rather than a deterministic forecast.
The market will resolve to the official lowest air temperature for Austin on March 26, 2026 as defined in the market's resolution rules — typically an NWS or officially designated observing station and its reported measurement methodology. Consult the market's resolution text for the exact station and data source used.
Unless the market rules state otherwise, 'on March 26, 2026' generally refers to the local calendar date (midnight to midnight, Central Time). Confirm the market's resolution rules for any deviations from that convention.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range visible on the market page; the contract's resolution rules specify whether boundaries are inclusive or exclusive and how exact ties or borderline readings are handled—review those rules to see which outcome applies if the observed temperature equals a bin edge.
Traders commonly monitor global and regional numerical models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF, high-resolution mesoscale models), NWS forecasts and advisories, METARs and automated station observations, radar/satellite for cloud/precipitation trends, and local mesonet data near Austin.
Late March is a transitional month that can produce either mild lows or, on occasion, colder-than-typical nights when strong cool air arrives. Very low readings are driven by strong synoptic cold events combined with clear, calm nights; consult historical climatology and recent years' records for context about frequency but check the market's historical links for specific past values.