| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Austin will be on March 25, 2026, and lets traders express expectations about that single-day minimum. Outcomes can inform local weather risk assessments for energy, transportation, and agriculture.
Late March is a transitional month in central Texas: conditions can range from mild spring warmth to brief cold snaps driven by passing cold fronts. Large-scale drivers such as the position of upper‑level troughs/ridges, surface fronts, and soil moisture combine with local factors like urban heat effects to determine overnight minimums. This market is resolved against an official observing source and divided into discrete outcomes that capture the expected range of possible lows.
Market prices reflect the collective view of participants about which outcome will occur; movement in prices signals changing expectations as new observations and model runs arrive. Use prices as a real‑time indicator of consensus, but consult official settlement rules for the definitive result.
The official settlement source and station are specified in the event rules—check the event description for the named observing site (commonly the National Weather Service official Austin station or another designated instrument). That source is authoritative for settlement.
The market’s rules define the precise time window used to record the daily minimum (for example a 00:00–23:59 local calendar day or a specified UTC interval); consult the event page for that cutoff to know which hours count.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature range or bin as listed on the event page; review the outcome labels to see how the continuous temperature variable has been partitioned for settlement.
Short‑range model runs, surface observations, and evolving cloud/wind conditions can shift expectations rapidly in the hours before the minimum occurs, which is why prices often move as new data arrive; the final settled outcome, however, depends solely on the official observation.
Participants typically include weather traders, professional forecasters and meteorologists, local residents with observational knowledge, and speculative traders — each can trade based on models, observations, local intelligence, or risk hedging needs.