| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Austin, TX will be on March 24, 2026; it matters to traders and observers who want to take positions on short-term weather outcomes and to anyone tracking local climate variability.
Daily minimum temperature outcomes are driven by regional weather patterns and local effects; Austin’s lows can swing notably in spring depending on frontal passages, cloud cover, and local microclimates. Historical late‑March variability reflects the transition between cool-season frontal control and warm-season radiational regimes.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which discrete temperature outcome will be the lowest observed on that date; to interpret them you should pair market prices with independent meteorological information and the event’s settlement rules.
Settlement will follow the specific official source named in the market’s rules on the event page; KALSHI markets typically cite an NWS/NOAA observing station or ASOS/AWOS report for the named city—check the event details for the exact station and product used.
The event’s settlement section specifies the measurement window and timezone (for example local calendar day or a 24‑hour UTC window); confirm the exact start/end times and whether local daylight saving rules apply by reading the event rules.
The event description lists six mutually exclusive outcome bins (ranges or discrete values); review those outcome labels on the market page to see the exact temperature thresholds that determine which outcome wins.
The market’s contingency and settlement rules specify procedures for missing or questionable data—options commonly include using an alternate official source, consulting a backup product, or voiding/pausing settlement; check the event page for the precise fallback policy.
Track short‑range model guidance and ensemble spreads for frontal timing, overnight cloud cover forecasts, wind forecasts near dawn, high‑resolution convection-permitting runs for localized effects, and official NWS discussions for evolving synoptic signals and observation updates.