| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature measured in Austin on March 23, 2026 will be. It matters for people who trade weather risk, plan outdoor events, or follow local climate variability because the realized temperature determines settlement.
Austin's temperatures in late March can be influenced by a mix of springtime fronts, radiational cooling on clear nights, and variability in large-scale patterns such as upper-level troughs or ridges. Historical late‑March records show considerable year‑to‑year variability, so short‑term weather developments in the days before March 23 will strongly affect expectations.
Market prices reflect traders' collective views about which temperature bin is most likely given available forecasts and observations; they update as new model runs and observations arrive. Use the market as a real‑time aggregation of forecast information, not as a definitive scientific measurement — the official observing station and data source named in the contract determine settlement.
The settlement temperature is the official observed air temperature reported by the data source and observing station specified in the contract terms; it typically refers to the lowest minute or hourly observation within the local calendar day. Check the market's settlement rules to confirm the exact station and measurement protocol.
Settlement occurs after the official observation for March 23 is published by the data provider named in the contract. The market’s settlement page lists that provider (for example, an NWS/ASOS station or a specific climatological station); allow the time the platform specifies for final verification and posting.
This market’s six outcomes correspond to discrete temperature bins or categories defined in the contract description. The outcome whose bin contains the officially reported lowest temperature for March 23, 2026 will be the winning outcome — consult the outcome labels on the market page for the exact ranges.
Monitor deterministic and ensemble model runs (surface and 850 hPa fields), NWS forecasts and discussions for the Austin area, satellite trends for cloud cover, surface observations near the settlement station, and watches/warnings for frontal passages — changes in any of these can materially shift expectations for the overnight low.
Compare the settlement value reported by the platform to the official observation from the named data provider (for example, the National Weather Service's local observation page or the specified ASOS/coop station hourly data). The contract’s settlement documentation will state which source is authoritative for disputes.