| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the lowest recorded in Austin on March 22, 2026; it matters for traders hedging weather exposure and for anyone tracking short-term climate variability. Outcomes capture collective expectations about near-term weather conditions in a city with highly variable spring temperatures.
Austin sits in central Texas where late winter to early spring is a transitional season driven by clashes between Gulf moisture and continental cold air; strong cold fronts or lingering cloud cover can push lows unusually low for the date, while southerly flow and urban heat effects can keep nights mild. Historical variability in March is high, so single-day extremes often reflect short-lived synoptic events rather than long-term trends.
Market odds aggregate participant expectations and available meteorological information; they update as models, observations, and local forecasts change. Use them as a real-time signal of consensus, but cross-check with official weather forecasts and model outputs for operational decisions.
Settlement will follow the event's posted rules; typically this means the minimum official air temperature observed during the local calendar day for the Austin station specified by the market. Confirm the exact definition and any time-window or averaging rules on the market page.
The market will list its official source in the rules; common choices are National Weather Service/NOAA observations or an ASOS/AWOS station for Austin. Check the event details to see which observing site and dataset will be used for settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range or bucket defined by the market creator. View the market page to see the exact ranges and how they partition possible low-temperature values for March 22, 2026.
The event currently lists the close time as TBD; the market page will announce a trading cutoff and the settlement schedule once finalized. Settlement typically occurs after the observing agency publishes the official daily temperatures for the relevant station.
Watch frontal timing and strength in synoptic models, overnight cloud cover and precipitation forecasts, ensemble spread (model uncertainty), recent observations from nearby stations, and mesoscale updates such as temperature trends and nighttime radiational cooling potential.