| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will correspond to the lowest observed temperature in Austin on March 21, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-aware participants who want to express views on short-range temperature risk around that date.
Austin's late-March temperatures sit in a seasonal transition where both spring warmth and occasional cool-air outbreaks are possible, so weather systems arriving in the days before March 21 will strongly shape outcomes. Markets like this combine near-term model forecasts, recent observations, and local climatology; historical variability around this date means outcomes can shift quickly as new forecast data and observations arrive.
Market prices aggregate information from traders about expected temperature ranges, reflecting available forecasts and local conditions; interpret prices as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed truth, and check settlement rules to understand exactly what observation the market uses.
Settlement is determined by the specific data source and definition listed in the contract's settlement terms; typically this means the lowest official observation recorded on that calendar date in the local time zone at the designated reporting station—confirm the exact station and clock used in the market details.
The market close is listed as TBD; final settlement timing depends on the platform's rules and when the official observing agency publishes the validated daily temperatures—consult the market page and settlement policy for exact post-event timelines.
Watch forecast model runs and ensemble trends for frontal passages, overnight cloud forecasts, precipitation chances, surface pressure patterns, and real-time surface observations from Austin area stations, since changes in timing or cloud cover in the 48–72 hours before the date can change the expected low.
Traders commonly use a mix of short-range deterministic models (e.g., high-resolution hourly models), ensemble forecasts to assess spread, local observation networks, and climatological normals as a baseline; integrating recent model trends and live observations is especially important close to the event.
Yes; instrument malfunctions, data quality control, or post-event revisions can affect the official record—platform settlement rules typically describe backup sources, dispute procedures, and how revisions are handled, so review those rules if you need specifics about contested observations.