| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature measured in Austin, Texas, will be on March 20, 2026. It matters because overnight low temperatures affect energy demand, transportation, agriculture, and local event planning.
Austin sits in a transitional climatological zone where mid-March temperatures can swing between mild and occasionally chilly due to passing frontal systems. Late-winter cold snaps have happened historically but are less common than milder outcomes; the reported low also depends on the specific observing station and local microclimates.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants and update as new model runs and observations arrive; they should be read as a real-time, market-implied forecast rather than a guaranteed outcome.
The outcome is settled to the official source specified by the contract; markets like this typically use the National Weather Service observing station that serves Austin (check the event rules to confirm the exact station and measurement height).
The market's close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); settlement occurs after March 20 once the designated official observations are available and any applicable verification window has passed, per the market's settlement rules.
Monitor major model guidance (ECMWF, GFS), ensemble spreads, high-resolution short-range models, National Weather Service forecasts and local airport obs, and real-time surface observations and radar—updates in the 48–72 hour window and the night before the date are especially influential.
Climatology provides a baseline range for mid-March lows and indicates how unusual a given forecast would be; traders combine that baseline with current synoptic forecasts to form expectations, placing more weight on real-time model and observational evidence as the date approaches.
Settlement follows the market operator's dispute and correction policies: the designated official source is used first, and if corrections or errors are later identified, the operator's stated procedures determine whether and how settlements are adjusted—review the event's rules for specifics.