| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° or above | 91% | 90¢ | 97¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 1% | 1¢ | 9¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 1% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 55° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which recorded temperature will be the lowest in Austin on March 2, 2026; it matters for anyone trading weather exposure or following short-term cold risk in Central Texas.
Early March in Austin is a transitional period when spring warmth can be interrupted by late-season cold fronts, producing wide day-to-day variability. Historical events and local factors (urban heat island, station location) both influence observed lows, so market expectations reflect a mix of synoptic forecasts and local microclimate considerations.
Market odds aggregate trader beliefs about which temperature bin will be realized and update as forecasts and observations evolve; use them as a real-time summary of information rather than a guaranteed prediction.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement typically occurs after the official temperature observations for March 2, 2026 are published by the designated data source, so check the KALSHI event page for the final close and settlement schedule.
The event's settlement rules specify the official data source (for example, a particular National Weather Service station or hourly observation product); the exact station and measurement method are defined on the market page and will be used to determine the lowest observed hourly temperature that day.
Each outcome corresponds to a labeled temperature range or discrete value as shown on the market page; after the designated observation dataset is reviewed, the outcome whose range contains the recorded lowest temperature will be selected for settlement.
Consider early-March climatology (typical diurnal ranges and frequency of late cold fronts), recent multi-year variability, and any notable past anomalies that illustrate how rapidly conditions can change; those patterns help interpret how unusual a given low would be.
Delays or disputes may arise from data revisions, station outages or maintenance, ambiguities about which station or observation hour applies, or reporting errors; consult the market's settlement rules and contact KALSHI support if you believe the published result conflicts with the stated data source.