| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will correspond to the lowest observed air temperature in Austin on March 19, 2026. It matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather risk and for anyone tracking near-term temperature extremes in the region.
Austin's March weather sits in a transition season where nights can still be cool while days warm rapidly; seasonal variability and occasional late cold fronts or clear, calm nights can drive lower minimums. Historical climatology and recent trends provide context, but a single-day low depends on synoptic weather patterns and local effects on that date.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about which outcome will contain the official lowest temperature; interpret them as a dynamic, consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast. Always cross-check the market’s stated resolution source and outcome definitions before trading.
The market resolves to the official observation source stated in the event rules; typically this is a primary meteorological station or the National Weather Service station specified on the event page, so check that resolution clause before trading.
Resolution normally uses the calendar date in local time at the chosen observation site (00:00 to 23:59 local time), but the precise window is defined in the market's rules — consult the event’s resolution details to confirm.
The event’s outcome definitions and tie-break rules in the market’s resolution language determine boundary handling; if not explicit, the platform’s standard resolution procedures apply, so review those policies linked from the event page.
Operational observations may be subject to post-event quality control; markets use the final official value from the specified resolution source as of the cutoff time in the rules, so any official adjustments by that provider are what determine the winning outcome.
Look at forecast model guidance for frontal passages, surface high pressure, cloud cover trends, overnight wind speeds, soil and vegetation moisture, and proximity of the observation site to urban heat influences—each can materially change overnight minima.