| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six predefined ranges will contain the lowest air temperature observed in Austin on March 18, 2026; it matters to outdoor event planners, utilities, and anyone tracking short-term climate risk. Market prices aggregate participants' expectations about overnight cooling and synoptic weather influences for that date.
Austin in mid-March sits in a transitional season where strong cold fronts can still produce unusually low readings while mild Pacific or Gulf air can keep nights comparatively warm. Local factors—urban heat island, cloud cover, and recent soil moisture—interact with large-scale patterns to determine a single-day minimum temperature. Historical March 18 values provide context but do not guarantee outcomes because day-to-day weather is driven by evolving synoptic conditions.
Market odds represent the collective expectation of which temperature range will be realized and will change as new model runs and observations arrive; they are not fixed forecasts but a real-time reflection of traders' information. Use them alongside official forecasts and model guidance to form your own view.
Settlement is based on the official observation specified by the contract (usually an official meteorological station) during the calendar date March 18 in local Austin time; consult the market's settlement rules for the precise station and the 00:00–23:59 local time window used.
The market's close time is listed as TBD and will be posted on the market page; final settlement occurs after the official observational record for March 18 is available and the designated data source has published its values.
High‑resolution and ensemble model runs, surface observations, and nowcasts update expectations for overnight cooling and front timing, so new model information and near‑term surface observations often drive price movements in the 48 hours before March 18.
The market is divided into six mutually exclusive temperature ranges defined in the contract; the outcome that contains the officially recorded lowest temperature for March 18 is the winning bin—check the market page for the exact numeric cutoffs and settlement definitions.
Use historical March 18 data and broader climatology to set a baseline expectation and understand variability, but weigh that against current synoptic forecasts and recent observations because single‑day minima are highly sensitive to short‑term weather patterns.