| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25° to 26° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete temperature outcome will be the lowest observed temperature in Austin on March 17, 2026. It matters for people and organizations planning outdoor activities, energy usage, and frost-sensitive operations that depend on overnight lows.
Austin sits in a transitional early‑spring climate where overnight lows in mid‑March can vary considerably from mild to occasionally chilly depending on large‑scale weather systems. Historical variability is driven by frontal passages, Gulf moisture, and synoptic cold intrusions; local factors such as cloud cover, rain, and urban heat island effects also shape the observed minimum. The market uses an official observing source and settlement rules to determine which discrete outcome wins.
Market odds are a real‑time aggregation of participant beliefs about which temperature bin will occur; they update as new weather models and observations arrive and should be read as indicators of collective expectation rather than guaranteed forecasts.
Settlement will use the official observing station and data provider specified in the market's settlement rules; commonly markets reference the National Weather Service/NOAA official station for Austin. Consult the event's settlement documentation to confirm the exact station and dataset.
The market follows the precise time window defined in its settlement rules—typically the local calendar day for the specified station (00:00 to 24:00 local time), but confirm the event page for the market's timezone and exact measurement window.
Rounding and binning are governed by the market's settlement procedures; the official reported observation is used and then applied to the predefined outcome bins or rounding conventions described in the event rules—check those rules to see whether values are truncated, rounded to the nearest degree, or assigned to specific bins.
Yes. The selected observation site’s surroundings (runway, urban area, green space) and local topography can influence overnight minima, so the identity of the chosen station affects which outcome is recorded; the event’s settlement documentation will name the station used.
The market operator posts settlement results according to its timeline in the event rules; the underlying observed temperature will also be available from the named official data provider (for example, NOAA/NWS archives) once the day's observations are finalized—check the event page for the settlement announcement schedule and links to the data source.