| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest observed temperature in Austin will be on March 16, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive decisions, risk management, and short-term trading tied to an easily verifiable meteorological outcome.
Austin's overnight low in mid-March sits near the transitional period between winter and spring, so outcomes can swing from mild nights to brief cold spells depending on synoptic patterns. Local factors such as frontal passages from the north, cloud cover, soil moisture, and urban heat island effects all influence the realized low on a given date; consult the market's official contract text for any designated observing station or resolution procedure.
Market odds reflect traders' aggregated views about how meteorological conditions will evolve by the target date and should be interpreted as a dynamic consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast. For operational resolution, always refer to the contract's listed official data source and time window rather than inferred probabilities.
The market's close time is listed on the KALSHI contract page (currently TBD); the outcome will be determined after March 16, 2026 using the contract's stated resolution window and official data source—check the platform for the precise close and settlement schedule.
The contract should specify the official observing station or dataset (for example, a National Weather Service station such as Austin-Bergstrom or a specified airport/coop station); if the contract does not name a source, KALSHI's resolution rules will identify the official data source—consult the contract text for resolution details.
Contracts typically define a local-date window (00:00–23:59 local time) and rely on standard meteorological observations (e.g., hourly or ASOS 5-minute readings); verify the contract for the exact time zone (Central Standard/Daylight Time as applicable) and the measurement interval used for determining the daily minimum.
Resolution rules in the contract specify how ties and rounding are handled—common approaches include using the officially reported value from the designated station, applying standard rounding conventions, or following NWS/NOAA reporting procedures; check the contract's tie-breaking and rounding provisions.
Monitor forecasts for frontal passages or low-pressure systems, upper-air model agreement on cold-air advection, cloud-cover and precipitation forecasts that would inhibit nocturnal cooling, surface wind speed trends (calm favors lower lows), and local model output and observations from nearby ASOS/COOP sites to detect rapidly evolving conditions.