| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Austin on March 15, 2026 will be. It matters to weather-sensitive parties (energy, transportation, event planners) and to traders who follow short-term meteorological risk.
Mid-March in Austin is a transitional period when either lingering winter cold or early spring warmth can dominate, so single-day lows are strongly driven by synoptic-scale patterns and local radiative effects. Markets on a specific calendar date let participants incorporate forecast model updates, observed trends, and climatological context into trading decisions.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment about which outcome will contain the observed lowest temperature; interpret prices as indicators that can change rapidly as new observations and forecasts arrive. Always consult the event's official settlement rules on KALSHI to understand how the final outcome will be determined.
The market close time is set by KALSHI and marked on the event page; it may be listed as TBD until KALSHI assigns a final cutoff. Check the KALSHI market page for the definitive close time before placing trades.
Settlement uses the market's official data source and procedure as described on the KALSHI event rules — typically the single lowest verified air temperature reported for the designated Austin observing station during the specified local date. Consult the event's settlement rules to confirm the exact station, time window, and tie-breaking procedures.
The six outcomes are the mutually exclusive values or temperature ranges displayed on the KALSHI market page; after the measurement is published, the outcome whose label contains the observed lowest temperature is declared the winner. Review outcome labels carefully before trading so you understand the numeric boundaries.
Conditions that promote an unusually low minimum include a strong cold-air advection from a frontal passage or arctic intrusion, clear skies overnight, dry low-level air, and light winds that allow radiational cooling and drainage of cold air into low-lying areas.
KALSHI's settlement rules specify procedures for missing data and post-event revisions—this may include using an alternate official data source or applying a revision window. Read the event's settlement policy on KALSHI to understand how outages and revisions are handled for this market.