| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain the lowest air temperature observed in Austin on March 14, 2026. It matters to weather-sensitive businesses, event planners, and participants who trade weather outcomes or hedge temperature risk.
Mid-March in Central Texas is a transitional period when both late-season cold outbreaks and spring warm-ups are possible; synoptic-scale cold fronts can produce much colder nights than a mild pattern. Local factors — measurement location, urban heat island effects, and cloud/soil conditions — also shape overnight minima. Markets like this summarize expectations about those interacting influences on a single calendar day.
Market odds are a real-time aggregation of trader views about which predefined temperature range will contain the day’s low; they update as forecasts, observations, and trader positions change. Always read the contract text to understand the exact measurement and resolution rules before trading.
Resolution follows the contract text: the market uses the official lowest air temperature reported for the specified observation period at the designated station and applies any stated rounding or binning rules.
The contract will name the reporting station used to settle the contract; many Austin-focused contracts use the National Weather Service station at Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS) or another explicitly stated official station—check the market page for the exact station.
Most contracts include a contingency: they either use a backup official data source, a nearby NWS station, or the NWS quality-controlled final daily summary; the exact procedure is specified in the market’s resolution rules.
Forecasts and ensemble guidance begin to meaningfully affect trader expectations several days ahead, with rapid adjustments in the 48–72 hour window as short-range models and observations clarify front timing and overnight conditions.
The six outcomes partition the range of possible lowest temperatures into mutually exclusive bins as defined by the contract; the outcome whose bin contains the official observed low on March 14 is the winner—check the event page for exact bin boundaries and any tie or boundary rules.