| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will contain the lowest temperature recorded in Austin on March 13, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-interested participants because temperature outcomes can be driven by short-term weather patterns and seasonality. Understanding this event helps with hedging weather exposure or testing forecasting skill on a single-day, location-specific outcome.
Austin sits in a humid subtropical climate where early March can feature wide swings between unseasonably cold nights and mild conditions; late-winter cold fronts, clear skies, and radiational cooling can all produce low overnight temperatures. Historical events (including occasional strong cold snaps in Texas) show that single-day lows can deviate substantially from monthly averages, so pay attention to synoptic forecasts in the days before March 13.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of which outcome bin will contain the reported minimum temperature on that date, not a guarantee; use them alongside official observations and model forecasts. Prices move as new information arrives (model runs, front timing, cloud cover forecasts), so interpret changes as updates to the consensus forecast.
The market will use the specific official reporting station listed in the market rules (typically the National Weather Service or an ASOS station for Austin); check the event page for the named source and data provider that will be used to settle the market.
Settlement typically uses the local calendar date for the specified reporting station (midnight-to-midnight local time for March 13), but confirm the market's rules because some markets define the observation window explicitly in their settlement terms.
The market's close time is shown on the event page; if it is listed as TBD, monitor the event page for an announced close time or any platform notifications prior to the observation period.
Settlement follows the platform's stated tie-breaking and reporting procedures—if the same minimum value occurs at different times at the chosen station, the single reported minimum value is used; if multiple stations were allowed, the market rules specify which station's reading governs, so review the settlement clause.
Consult short- and medium-range numerical weather prediction models, the NWS Austin forecast discussions, recent trends in ensemble forecasts, expected cloud cover and precipitation, and any bulletin about fronts or arctic air intrusions; also review recent nightly minima at the designated reporting station to gauge local behavior.