| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will record the lowest temperature in Austin on March 12, 2026. It matters for short-term weather risk, energy demand, and local operations that are sensitive to cold overnight conditions.
Austin in early March is in a transitional season when cold frontal passages can produce large day-to-day swings in overnight lows. Local factors (urban heat island, station exposure) combine with synoptic-scale drivers (cold air intrusions, upper-level troughs, Gulf moisture) to determine the minimum temperature on a given night. Note that March 12, 2026 falls after the U.S. daylight-saving time change, so local reporting will be in CDT.
Market odds summarize the crowd’s aggregated expectations for which temperature-range outcome will be the nightly minimum and update as new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Use movements in the market as a real-time signal of changing forecast confidence rather than an exact temperature forecast.
Settlement uses the official observation source named in the contract. Check the market's contract description to see the exact station and dataset (contracts commonly reference the local NWS/NOAA ASOS/AWOS or a specified official station such as Austin-Bergstrom if listed).
Unless the contract specifies otherwise, 'on Mar 12, 2026' refers to the local calendar day from 00:00 to 23:59 local time (Austin will be on CDT that date). Confirm the contract text for any alternate definitions of the measurement period.
Settlement timing is set by the market rules; many weather contracts wait for the official daily summary or quality-controlled data and may take several days to finalize. Refer to the contract for the published settlement window and finalization procedure.
Tie-breaking, rounding, and reporting precision are governed by the contract's settlement rules. Common approaches use the instrument precision or specified rounding convention; check the contract text to see which method will be applied.
Significant changes in deterministic model runs (e.g., GFS/ECMWF), new NWS forecast updates, updated sounding/prognostic guidance on cold-air advection, and late arriving surface observations or nowcasts (cloud trends, frontal timing) typically drive rapid price movement for the overnight-minimum outcome.