| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° to 63° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 55° or below | 15% | 14¢ | 18¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 20% | 16¢ | 20¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 29% | 28¢ | 33¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 32% | 29¢ | 33¢ | — | $946 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Austin will be on March 11, 2026. It matters for local sectors such as utilities, transportation, public safety, and anyone planning outdoor activities that day.
Austin’s early March temperatures can be variable, influenced by both lingering winter air masses and early spring warmth; some years see cold snaps while others are mild. The official value used for settlement will come from the designated observing station and follows standard meteorological reporting practices.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about which temperature range will be observed and can move as new forecast information arrives. Use prices as a gauge of consensus, but consult official meteorological reports for the authoritative recorded value.
Settlement uses the lowest air temperature reported by the specific official observing station named in the event rules during the local calendar day of March 11, 2026, following the station’s standard measurement and reporting protocols.
The event’s description or rulebook specifies the designated reporting station (commonly the National Weather Service primary station for Austin); check the event page to confirm which station the market will use for settlement.
Settlement occurs after the designated authority publishes the official daily observation for March 11; timing depends on that authority’s verification and the market’s settlement procedures—consult the event page for the exact settlement timeline.
Local warming from urban surfaces can raise minimum temperatures at stations sited in developed areas, so the official station’s environment matters; the market outcome reflects the station’s measured value, not a citywide average.
Monitor forecasts for the timing and strength of any cold front or arctic air intrusions, overnight cloud cover and winds, precipitation chances, and model guidance on low-temperature timing—these factors most directly affect the daily minimum.