| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or above | 44% | 45¢ | 65¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 89% | 23¢ | 52¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 1% | 0¢ | 74¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 61° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 2% | 2¢ | 13¢ | — | $924 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 3% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $850 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest observed temperature in Austin will be on March 10, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders because single-day extremes can affect energy demand, travel, and local operations. The outcome is determined from official meteorological observations as specified in the contract.
Early March in central Texas is a transitional period when strong cold fronts can produce large day-to-day temperature swings, while longer-term warming trends have altered seasonality and extremes. Austin's lowest temperatures are shaped by synoptic-scale air masses (continental polar or arctic intrusions) interacting with local factors such as cloud cover, wind, and urban heat effects. Historical March lows provide context but each date is strongly influenced by short-range atmospheric circulation.
Market odds reflect traders' aggregated views of available data (climatology, forecasts, and model guidance) rather than guaranteed outcomes; treat the market price as a real-time signal of consensus confidence. Use the contract rules and official observation source to map market outcomes to the actual recorded temperature.
The contract specifies the exact observing station or dataset used to determine the outcome (commonly an NWS official station such as the primary Austin station or an NCEI-validated product). Consult the market's resolution rules to see the designated source.
The market uses the local calendar day window defined in the contract (typically from 00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local time at the specified station); check the contract text for the precise time-zone and boundary definitions used for resolution.
Resolution procedures are listed in the contract and usually direct the use of backup sources such as the nearest official station, NWS quality-controlled data, or NCEI final datasets; the platform will follow those rules to select the best available observation.
A strong, cold air mass through the region accompanied by clear skies, light winds, dry antecedent conditions, and quick nocturnal radiational cooling will favor lower minima; timing of the front (overnight vs. daytime) also matters for the calendar-day minimum.
Combine climatological normals and recent historical lows for early March with current model guidance and ensemble spread (GFS, ECMWF, regional runs) to assess plausible scenarios; monitor updates as short-range models and observations can change the near-term forecast substantially.